As opposed to 2019 and 2020, the southwest monsoon has been slow this year. So far, rain has fallen 7.9 per cent less than the historical average for the period (June-September). The temporal distribution of the figures, however, has raised more questions than the aggregate number. The main Kharif sowing window for the coming rainy season was missed because of a prolonged dry spell that began on June 20. During July 12-13, the monsoons returned and plantings also picked up. A shortage of 24 per cent of rainfall was recorded in August. In the event of above-normal rainfall in September, it would mostly benefit the rabi crop, says the India Meteorological Department. With current water levels in major reservoirs lower than a year ago, there is little hope for a bumper rabi harvest to compensate for likely Kharif losses.
In 2019-20 and 2020-21, the farm sector grew by 4.3 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively, more than the overall GDP of 4 percent and minus 7.3 percent. The agricultural sector was a shock absorber for the economy, especially after the Covid lockdown. According to the latest Periodic Labor Force Survey for July 2019-June 2020, the proportion of people engaged in farming activity increased from 42.5% in 2018-19 to 45.6%. This marks a reversal of the historic trend of agriculture’s declining share of total employment, as reported in this newspaper. The Indian economy suffered a severe drop in growth pre-Covid and then a contraction during both 2019-20 and 2020-21. Despite the loss of jobs across most sectors – including manufacturing, construction, hotels, tourism, transport, and retail – agriculture was able to absorb some of the labor. This was made possible by back-to-back good monsoons.
As a result of the monsoon’s performance, a repeat of the above story is unlikely. As per the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, during May-July, 124 million people were employed in agriculture, but 116 million people were employed in the month of August. Rain was not falling on those fields when it was needed. It cannot save us this time, simply put. Now that Covid has hopefully passed, other engines of the economy need to start working. There is a need for India to resume and go beyond its normal growth trajectory, with more jobs being created in manufacturing, construction, and services. The future of agriculture lies in becoming more productive and adding value outside of farms
